Norwegian Salmon Exports - End of Year Update

Hola Amigos – the Norwegian Seafood Council export statistics have been updated for the end of December. (Which is amazing in and of itself).

Here are the charts:

Fresh Whole Salmon

Norwegian Seafood Council - Fresh Whole Salmon to December 2024

Fresh Fillet

Norwegian Seafood Council - Fresh Salmon Fillet exports to December 2024

Observations:

Whole fish pricing and volumes – following the normal trend, prices bottomed-out in September, remained low through October and then began a recovery in November. December prices increased 22% from the September low. Looking forward, prices are likely to peak at somewhere around 130 NOK/kg in February/March. It will depend somewhat on how fish condition holds up through the winter. Last winter, the general trend of strong demand in the winter months was exacerbated by widespread issues with winter sores and quality downgrading which tightened the supply of whole fish considerably.

Early reports have suggested issues with jellyfish wounds have not gone away so my guess is that the market for whole fish will remain very tight throughout the winter and spring.

Fresh fillet pricing and volumes – fillet volumes were up over previous years in October and November while prices were flat. This suggests to me that there was a fair amount of downgrading to contend with – particularly into November when whole fish prices increased sharply and would have presented a better economic opportunity. Average prices increased 15% from the low point in October.

Looking more closely at November pricing, applying a yield of 56% to the average fresh fillet pricing of 142 NOK/kg provides a return of 79 NOK/kg of whole fish. Once the additional cost for filleting is considered, the return to raw material is likely closer to 65 NOK/kg which is basically a break even for most Norwegian producers. If they had been able to direct these fish to the whole fish market, they would have.

If fish health conditions have improved significantly over last year, fresh fillets are likely to be extremely expensive in the next few months. Should market prices for whole fish approach the 130 NOK/kg level, a fillet sale would need to be priced at 230 NOK/kg to achieve the same economic return.

Q4 Volume updates

Only a couple of companies have published Q4 2024 volume updates – Salmar and Grieg – not enough to draw many conclusions but Salmar is essentially flat with 2023 while Grieg is down in volumes. My, perhaps rash, prediction is that we are going to set records on price while volume growth will be close to zero.

Thanks for reading if you’ve made it this far. Comments, feedback welcome via the comment section below, my LinkedIn profile or email at Info@AlanWCook.com.