The $250M Offshore Bet That Could Sink Land-Based Salmon Farming
Marinova Panamax tanker with rotor sails
Land-based aquaculture is burning millions. Still, investors keep lining up. Why?
Over the past few months, I’ve been working with Pan Ocean Aquaculture to raise capital for a very different kind of project—Marinova, a vessel-based, ocean-going aquaculture system that sidesteps many of the regulatory, biological, and financial sinkholes land-based projects can’t seem to avoid. (Spoiler: this isn't some science fiction farm. It’s already being built.)
We’ve seen real traction—especially on the debt side—because bulk tankers are bankable, flexible, and unlike stationary infrastructure, they don’t leave you with a stranded asset shaped like a failed aquarium startup if things don’t go to plan. But investor reactions have been telling. We keep hearing the same thing:
“We’re focused on land-based aquaculture.”
This response deserves more scrutiny than it gets. The land-based model is bloated with capex, clogged with permitting delays, and often built on margin assumptions that only work in fairy tales (or 2021). And yet, many investors are doubling down—not because it makes sense, but because they’ve already bet the farm. Literally.
What we’re seeing isn’t a rational allocation of capital. It’s sunk cost and reputational bias disguised as strategy.
Bay Area LingDing
Investors Love Innovation—Until It Looks Different
Pitching vessel-based aquaculture means spending the first 30 minutes just convincing people it isn’t insane.
If you're in the seafood investment space, you've probably internalized one of two “safe” models for aquaculture:
Land-based systems (which we’ll get to in a minute)
Fixed offshore farms tethered to some expensive, regulation-choked coastline
If your project doesn’t fit one of those molds, your first meeting isn’t a pitch—it’s a TED Talk. And if you waste your 30-minute window explaining why your idea isn’t science fiction, you’re toast.
It’s a tragic mismatch: innovative models like Marinova often lose investor attention not because the economics are flawed, but because the structure doesn’t feel familiar. Which brings us to the next barrier: myths dressed up as financial wisdom.
Bulk tankers for sale
The "Truths" That Aren't True
There’s a persistent belief in the aquaculture world that vessels are prohibitively expensive, require mystical Norwegian vessel-whisperers to operate, and only make sense for firms with terrifying profit margins.
Spoiler: none of that is real. These ideas aren’t economic truths. They’re defensive dogma passed down by an industry that’s been aggressively gatekept.
The reality is much simpler:
Bigger vessels are more efficient.
Operating costs are scalable.
Publicly available data shreds the idea that vessel-based systems are inherently riskier.
What you’re seeing isn’t resistance to facts—it’s resistance to rethinking decades of status quo strategy.
Regulation Is Not a Law of Physics
Another myth baked into the investment cake: “Complicated permits, slow approvals, and expensive coastal concessions are just the price of doing business.”
Why? Because that’s how it’s always been done.
The balance sheets of publicly traded salmon companies assign huge value to farming consents. Not tanks. Not fish. Just the right to operate. That’s how entrenched this worldview is.
Balance sheet values for aquaculture consents
Now, imagine walking into that ecosystem with a model that doesn’t need those consents.
Suddenly, you’re not just a pitch—they see you as a threat to the valuation logic of the entire sector. And guess what? Many investors have internalized that logic so deeply that your idea becomes inconceivable. Not unprofitable. Just outside their mental playbook.
Why Smart Funds Make Dumb Bets: Sunk Cost + Ego
Here’s a line we keep hearing:
“We’ve decided to pass—we’re focused on land-based aquaculture.”
Translation: We’re already neck-deep in a bad idea and don’t want to admit it.
Let’s talk about why this keeps happening.
Land-based salmon farming sounds great on a panel at a sustainability conference. It checks the ESG box, feels safe to explain in a slide deck, and gives investors warm fuzzy feelings about control. But the reality is… rough:
Sky-high costs
Permitting nightmares
Limited scalability
Fragile biology and tech dependencies
And a business model that assumes fish prices will always stay inflated
So why double down? Because sunk cost + ego = extremely stubborn capital.
Imagine you backed Atlantic Sapphire during the hype peak. You’ve got worthless shares, a bruised reputation, and a hopeful note taped to your Bloomberg terminal. You don’t want to pivot—you want redemption. Which leads to that classic investor logic:
“Let’s keep investing, the model will eventually prove itself”
Add in the vested interest side: you’ve published whitepapers, done press, maybe even said on record that land-based aquaculture is the future. Turning around now means eating your words with a side of crow tartare.
Sound familiar? It should. It’s what sunk Kodak. And Blockbuster. And every investor who laughed at vessel-based salmon farming while China built $250M worth of it behind their backs.
While the West Debates Permits, China Builds the Future
If you’re still skeptical that vessel-based salmon farming is the future, you might want to look east. While Western investors argue over coastal access and compliance risk, China’s already deep into construction.
In just the past few weeks, I’ve tracked six vessel-based aquaculture systems being built or operated in China—representing over $250 million USD in capital investment. That’s not a theory. That’s steel in shipyards and fish in tanks.
And it’s not just one yard. One of our contacts was talking this week with China’s largest privately owned shipyard. They’ve got:
4 dry docks
Capacity to convert 4 Panamax vessels per dock
That’s up to 16 vessel conversions annually
And potentially 64,000 gross tons of salmon production
Just from one facility.
Now multiply that by the dozens of yards in China with similar capacity. Once a working design gets locked in, scaling becomes inevitable.
It’s déjà vu for anyone who watched China take over manufacturing, solar panels, or EV batteries. The salmon industry’s “protected waters” are about to feel a lot less protected.
A Floating Farm in International Waters Isn’t Science Fiction—It’s the Next Industry Standard
Here’s the big unlock:
The ocean is bigger, cheaper, and freer than any land-based permit system ever will be.
With the right vessel design, you can farm almost anywhere:
No need for goldilocks coastal zones
No local user conflicts
No multi-year regulatory marathons
Just deep water, stable tech, and fish doing what fish do
Want salmon fry? Ship them. It’s cheap. Want freshwater? Ask Chile how hard it is. (Spoiler: it’s not.) Want a playbook? Look at what’s already happening offshore.
And here’s the kicker: the legal framework already exists to support this kind of aquaculture at scale. We’re not talking about lobbying for new laws. We’re talking about deploying in a system that’s already legally viable and commercially scalable—right now.
Betting Against the Ocean is a Bad Investment Strategy
Look, I’m not pretending to be neutral here. I’ve spent a lot time working on Marinova, and yes, I’m personally invested—in every sense—in making vessel-based aquaculture viable at scale.
But that doesn’t make me wrong.
What we’re seeing isn’t a quirky alternative to the status quo. It’s a technological step-change with the potential to upend the entire sector—just like digital cameras did to film, and smartphones did to everything.
The signs are all there:
Capital is already flowing into vessel-based systems (just not from the traditional sources yet)
China has a head start—but that window won’t stay open forever
And the first-movers in this space are going to define what the future looks like
If you're still betting on land-based aquaculture as your only horse, maybe it’s time to ask whether that conviction is grounded in facts… or just fear of being wrong.
Curious? Skeptical? Think I’ve lost it?
I’m always up for a discussion—especially with people willing to challenge their assumptions.
Reach me at Info@AlanWCook.com, comment below or connect on LinkedIn.